2011 World Series Predictions

To see predictions and analysis specific to game 7 of the World Series, Click Here.

The 2011 World Series pits two teams with a lot more similarities than differences. Although they took two very different routes to get here, both the Texas Rangers and the St. Louis Cardinals reached the MLB playoffs and eventually the World Series because of one thing – offense.

Strength in Offense

During the regular season, the Texas Rangers scored the third most runs in all of baseball. St. Louis was fifth in the Majors and first in the National League.  Long story short, these boys can put up runs.  Texas was tops in team batting average in all of baseball, while the St. Louis Cardinals were fifth (although first in the National League).

Mediocre Pitching

Some people say that pitching wins championships.  While that may be true most of the time, it is certainly not the reason that either of these two teams made the playoffs.  The Cardinals and Rangers were 12^th and 13^th respectively in team ERA. Not exactly something to write home about, but when your teams put up as many runs as these clubs do, pitching tends to take a back seat. Don’t underestimate the importance of pitching during the 2011 World Series, however. Because these clubs are so proficient offensively, this series could actually be won by the team who is able to pitch a little bit better.

St. Louis Cardinals Road to the 2011 World Series

The Cardinals reached the playoffs on the last day of the regular season, needing a win, combined with a Braves loss to make it.  There was no doubt that the Cardinals were playing their best baseball as the regular season ended, and that momentum carried through to the 2011 postseason.  It wasn’t easy, but they overcame the Phillies who had the best record in baseball and surprisingly ended the series with a masterful pitching performance. In their NLCS series against the Brewers, the Cardinals showed all of the firepower that their lineup holds. They made quick work of the Brewers and although the series went six games, it was pretty one sided throughout.  There is no doubt that the Cardinals should be the team to represent the National League in the 2011 World Series. They ended the regular season as the hottest team and they ended the NL playoffs as the hottest team.

Cardinals Regular vs. Postseason Splits

Offensively, the Cardinals are playing much better this postseason than they did during the regular season.  Considering that they were the top offensive team in the National League during the regular season, this improvement has to be pretty frightening for opponents. There are very few gaps in this lineup, and having to deal with Freese, Pujols, Holliday, and Berkman 4 times a game is a task that no pitching staff wants to handle.

The Cardinals scored almost one more run/game during the playoffs than they did during the regular season and hit about 15 points higher.  They did this against some pretty solid pitching staffs in the Phillies and Brewers, so we would expect that these stats would likely continue to grow when they face the Rangers who admittedly don’t have the best pitching staff right now.

On the mound, the Cardinals pitched marginally worse than they did during the regular season.  They gave up an additional .5 earned runs/game (roughly), walked more batters per game and struck out less.  They were able to hold opponents to a lower batting average, however.

At the end of the day, we know (and the Cardinals know), that they likely aren’t going to win this series based on their pitching. They need the bats to stay hot and they need their role players to continue to come through in the clutch.

Texas Rangers Road to the 2011 World Series

The Rangers had a fairly boring road to the playoffs, when compared to the Cardinals.  Texas led their division almost wire to wire and while their division race got a little tight near the end, their playoff chances were never really in danger. Once in the playoffs, they made quick work of the Tampa Bay Rays, and when faced off against the Detroit Tigers, they used clutch hitting and surprisingly solid pitching to advance to the 2011 World Series. If you had to sum up the Rangers 2011 postseason in one sentence, it would be “Nelson Cruz hits a homer” because each time his hits cleared the fence, it pretty much sealed the deal for the Rangers.

Rangers Regular vs. Postseason Splits

Offensively, the Texas Rangers had a postseason that was pretty consistent with how they played during the regular season.  During the 2011 postseason, Texas scored .22 more runs per game, had about 1 fewer hit per game, exact same number of home runs, and an OBP within .1 of the regular season.  The Rangers offense is, in a word, consistent.

On the mound, the Texas Rangers were pretty consistent as well.  Their ERA jumped a bit during the playoffs, as did their walks/game, but their strikeouts jumped as well. The opponents’ batting average stayed almost exactly the same.

Much like the Cardinals, the Rangers are not going to win the 2011 World Series with dominant pitching. They will need more clutch performances like Nelson Cruz provided during the AL playoffs. They will also need their lineup to hit consistently 1-9.

Who Will Win the 2011 World Series?

There is no doubt that we will see some high scoring games during the 2011 World Series, so the winner will come down to who can outscore the other team, not necessarily outpitch them.  As I stated in a podcast a couple weeks ago, I think that it is the Texas Rangers’ year.  Their offense is better than the Cardinals, their pitching is comparable throughout, and they have the advantage of experience, having played in the World Series last year as well.

We are all really looking forward to the start of the 2011 World Series, to see how our predictions turn out.  I know there are some Cardinals fans out there that might disagree, but let’s try to keep the comments clean, friendly, and backed up by good statistics.  Here’s to an amazing 2011 World Series between the Cardinals and the Rangers!